Are choice experiments reliable? Evidence from the lab

This study investigates whether a popular stated preference method, the choice experiment (CE), reliably measures individuals’ values for a good. We address this question using an induced value experiment. Our results indicate that CEs fail to elicit payoff maximizing choices. We find little evidence that increasing the salience of the choices or adding monetary incentives increase the proportion of payoff maximizing choices. This questions the increasing use of CE to value non-market goods for policy making.     

青海省物流需求规模预测的实证分析

运用灰色GM（1,1）预测模型,选取货运量为指标,根据统计数据建立了青海省铁路和公路物流需求规模模型,并对青海省十二五期间的物流需求规模进行了预测,在一定程度上能够为青海省物流业发展提供定量依据。     

Modeling climate change and agriculture: an introduction to the special issue

This issue of Agricultural Economics is a special issue containing articles on model performance in assessing the effects of climate change, bioenergy policy, and socioeconomics on agriculture. The contributions present results from a global economic model intercomparison activity undertaken as part of the AgMIP Project ( www.agmip.org ). The origins of the comparison activities can be traced to a project that was organized by the OECD in late 2010 to compare results from three models. The current phase of the research includes 10 models and was designed in part to support of the IPCC fifth assessment report (AR5). The special issue includes seven peer‐reviewed articles that present thematic results from a range of modeling strategies, with partial and general equilibrium modeling as a high level distinction but a myriad of differences within these two model types. A central common element is harmonization on biophysical effects using crop models and socioeconomic effects using drivers from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways developed as part of the AR5 process. The special issue provides broad insights into how the modeling communities approached the interactions of climate, socioeconomics, bioenergy policy on agricultural outcomes, including land use, prices, consumption, and production.     

The transformation of the Indian agricultural input industry: has it increased agricultural R&D?

Indian agricultural input industries have gone through a major transformation in the last 40 years. State owned firms grew during the Green Revolution and then stagnated or declined. Indian corporations that were protected from foreign competition are now exporters of agricultural tractors and pesticides. Foreign multinational corporations are rapidly increasing their role in the seed, pesticide, and tractor industries. Entry by large Indian firms and multinationals has increased competition in the input industries. Private agribusiness R&D in India grew from $23 million in 1985 to $250 million in 2009 in 2005 US dollars. This is the same time period as a transformation in the agricultural input industry, rapid growth in demand for agricultural inputs, breakthroughs in information technology and biotechnology, and changes in intellectual property rights. An econometric model was used to test whether the transformation of agricultural input industry was a major factor in the growth of R&D expenditure or not. This article analyzes a unique, firm level sales and R&D data set from the seed, pesticide, tractor, and fertilizer industries in 2000–2009. The estimated model indicates that agribusiness firms' R&D expenditures from 2000 to 2009 were positively related to variables associated with industry transformation such as firm size, ownership by multinationals, and declining industry concentration. The model also indicates that strengthening patent policy as well as growth in the size of research‐intensive industries like the seed industry contributed to the growth of agribusiness R&D in India.     

Re‐examination of production,cost, and restricted profit functions using quantile regression approach

This article estimates quantile regressions of production, cost, and restricted profit functions using a Cobb‐Douglas functional form with non‐Hicks neutral technology change. In contrast to previous studies, quantile regression estimates reveal the relationship between the independent (production, cost, and restricted profit) and dependent (input quantities and prices) variables at each quantile of the distribution. An empirical application using data from 48 states in United States from 1960 to 2004 indicates the returns to scale and aggregate technology not only differ across production, cost, and restricted profit functions but across states in different quantiles of the distribution. This suggests the traditional measures of returns to scale and aggregate technology are under‐ and overestimated in states at upper and lower quantiles, respectively.     

金融监管对市场质量和知情交易者的影响

本文利用一个基于代理的人工股票市场,考察了卖空禁令、涨跌幅限制、交易税和T+1结算周期对市场质量和知情交易者的影响。市场由知情交易者和不知情交易者组成,两者都可以通过遗传编程从市场股票信息中学习。通过平行测定几个市场程式化事实,将系统校准到真实的金融市场后,我们发现这四种监管都以不同程度的降低了市场波动、价格扭曲和交易...     

中国“三农”创新创业政策的历史演进：基于中央一号文件的语料库研究

创新创业成为中国解决"三农"问题的重要途径，而"三农"创新创业与国家相关政策的引导和支持密不可分。学者们对"三农"创新创业关注颇多，但尚未对相关政策进行系统的历时梳理，难以从整体上把握"三农"创新创业政策的发展脉络。文章基于话语历史分析框架、运用语料库研究方法对历年中央一号文件进行话语分析，以此透视中国"三农"创新创业政策的历史演进。研究发现，随着历史阶段的逐步推进：（1）中央一号文件始终围绕"农村"和"农业"的主题，对"创新"、"创业"及其部分同义词的提及率逐步甚至迅速上升，这在话语上佐证了政府日趋重视"三农"创新创业；（2）中央一号文件中"农民"的关键性有所降低，对其他创新创业主体和形式的提及率逐步上升，表明"三农"创新创业的主体趋于多元化、内容逐渐丰富；（3）中央一号文件政策话语中的政策态度从"加快"、"实行"逐步过渡到"稳定"与"完善"，说明"三农"创新创业政策体系已逐步形成。研究揭示了社会历史演进情境下"三农"创新创业政策的发展规律，深化了人们对核心"三农"政策及相关创新创业活动的历时性认识，而本研究对话语历史分析及语料库分析方法的引入也为政策话语分析提供了新的研究思路。     

Warming temperatures will likely induce higher premium rates and government outlays for the U.S. crop insurance program

Likely climate change impacts include damages to agricultural production resulting from increased exposure to extreme heat. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding impacts on crop insurance programs. We utilize a panel of U.S. corn yield data to predict the effect of warming temperatures on the mean and variance of yields, as well as crop insurance premium rates and producer subsidies. While we focus on corn, we demonstrate that the subsidy impacts are likely to carry over to other major program crops. We find that warming decreases mean yields and increases yield risk on average, which results in higher premium rates. Under a 1°C warming scenario, we find that premium rates at the 90% coverage level will increase by 39% on average; however, there is considerable statistical uncertainty around this average as the 95% confidence interval spans from 22% to 61%. We also find evidence of extensive cross‐sectional differences as the county‐level rate impacts range from a 10% reduction to a 63% increase. Results indicate that exposure to extreme heat and changes in the coefficient of variation are large drivers of the impacts. Under the 1°C warming scenario, we find that annual subsidy payments for the crop insurance program could increase by as much as $1.5 billion, representing a 22% increase relative to current levels. This estimate increases to 3.7 billion (57%) under a 2°C warming scenario. Our results correspond to a very specific counterfactual: the marginal effect of warming temperatures under current technology, production, and crop insurance enrollments. These impacts are shown to be smaller than the forecasted impacts under a commonly used end‐of‐century general circulation model for even the most optimistic CO₂ emissions projection.     

Extent of environmental disclosure of U.S. and Canadian firms by annual report location

This study discusses various influences on firms to provide additional environmental disclosure and empirically measures and analyzes the extent of actual environmental disclosures included in the annual reports of firms in the U.S. and Canada. The environmental disclosure content provided in the annual reports of firms is evaluated based on environmental reporting guidelines published by the American Institute of Public Accountants and the Canadian Institute of Chartered Accountants. In general, the results indicate that U.S. firms provided a significantly higher level of environmental disclosure than did Canadian firms. Also, firms in each nation varied significantly in the amount of environmental disclosure provided in each of four annual report sections.     

Forced technology transfer and China

Innovation is the most important competitive advantage of the United States. However, the infringement of intellectual property and the forcing of US firms to transfer technology to foreign firms have become increasingly important issues in recent years. This article discusses the implications of China's forced technology transfer regime.